среда, 9 мая 2018 г.

Forex trends


Forex trends


So, how do you find out which Forex pair and time frame is best to trade?
Knowing the trend is crucial. Sure, you have experienced times when you entered the trade and waited during the choppy zone while some other pair was making a solid move. Trading the market that turns up and down and takes back all the profits during a series of losses feels like a slow torture.
Forex Trendy is a software solution to avoid trading during uncertain market periods . Instead, pick the best trending pair at the current time.
It uses no indicators, but the trend is determined by pure price action.
It quickly scans 34 Forex pairs on all time frames from minute to monthly. That's 34 x 9 = 306 charts . Forex Trendy analyzes all the charts for you every second! This way, you get the best trending pair and time frame at any time you want.
The software runs on our powerful computers so you instantly get the result online. Therefore, you can use your favorite trading platform such as MetaTrader, NinjaTrader, TradeStation. and there is nothing you have to download or install . It is very easy to use.
The truth is that most Forex systems or robots make money with the trend, but lose money in a choppy market . For example, imagine you trade a system that makes 50% winning trades, but another 50% are losing trades. By following the trend you would dramatically increase the odds of winning. If you increase the odds of winning by only 20%, that would make 70% winning trades and 30% losing trades. This can make the difference between losing (or breaking-even) and winning. In other words, by following the best trend it can only be better .
Avoid struggling with the erratic market chaos when the trend direction is unclear. Take only confident trades in the best markets at the current time.
You would be the one knowing which one particular (even exotic) pair is trending while other traders wouldn't notice it without this tool. Knowledge is power!
Forex Trendy is a much more sophisticated application capable of recognizing the most reliable continuation chart patterns. It scans through all the charts, on all time frames and analyzes every potential breakout . After considering the reliability of the pattern it tells you something like this:
And you see the chart with the trend lines forming the triangle and the breakout point – all that clearly drawn for you . The trend line looks solid with many touching points, so you are prepared for the massive breakout. Something you would miss unless you have supernatural powers to watch and analyze all the charts! Such events happen very rarely in one single chart. It's not just drawing trendlines, but it's actually looking for reliable patterns formed by strong trendlines having more than two touching points at a certain distance.
Not familiar with chart patterns and these fancy names? You will get the 30-page ebook with tons of real examples "Understanding The Myths Of Market Trends And Patterns" right after subscribing!

Forex Market Trends for Tuesday 19 December 2017.
Choose a Pair.
Related Forex Fundamental Analysis and News.
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The dollar was on the back foot on Friday as squabbling over the US tax bill took its toll on confidence. The euro slipped following the European Central Bank press conference in which Draghi signaled policymakers would maintain stimulus for as long as needed.
Fed raises rates USD sells off.
USD stands tall as we move into Fed policy meeting; RBNZ new chief appointed.

Trends in Trends.
Trading with the trend is the easiest and most statistically reliable edge which can be used to make money in the markets. In this article, we will examine what you might expect from trends in Forex, major stock indices, and commodities, based upon historical data from the last 16 years.
Defining a Trend.
In conducting an analysis of several assets over a lengthy period, it makes sense to use a simple measure of trend. Here, the definition is as follows: if the weekly opening price of an asset is above its prices of 13 and 26 weeks ago, it is in an uptrend. If it is below its prices of 13 and 26 weeks ago, it is in a downtrend. If neither of these criteria are met, the asset is not in a trend.
The rough analysis is conducted by assuming that an asset in an uptrend is bought at the open of each week, or sold instead if in a downwards trend. Commissions, spreads, and swaps are not considered as the purpose is only to quantify trend phenomena, not to present a complete trading strategy. No leverage was used. The analysis is mostly conducted over 16 years of historical data, from July 2001 to the end of June 2017.
Forex Trends.
The U. S. dollar pairs with the highest market volumes were analyzed, and all produced positive trend measurements, except the USD/CHF currency pair. Note that no data was available for the NZD/USD currency pair before 2003.
Maximum peak-to-trough drawdowns are exhibited under “Worst DD”. This is an important statistic, as the ratio of drawdown to return is just as important as total return for intelligent traders. The profit factor is an important metric for trend traders, showing the relation of the total profit to the largest draw-down. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is also shown, which is what the final return would have been equal to, as a return on investment each year, compounded. Here are the weekly results over time, exhibited in graph format:
A few interesting elements can be noted. Firstly, all these currency pairs together produced a CAGR of 5.95% with a maximum draw-down of 91.67%.
A buy and hold strategy applied to the S&P 500 index of major U. S. shares would, over the same period, have produced a total return of 97.92%, giving a CAGR of 4.36%, and including at least one draw-down exceeding 50%. It seems that the U. S. dollar, at least, produces trends that are comparable to those produced by the stock market. A fairer comparison though, would be to compare the S&P 500 index’s results applying the same trend-following strategy.
The result is a total return of 50.11%, giving a CAGR of 2.57%, with a worst draw-down of 36.24%, producing a profit factor of 1.38. It must be admitted that this compares favorably to the Forex results, as the CAGR is higher than most of the currency pairs, but more importantly, the maximum draw-down is relatively low. It beats everything except the GBP/USD currency pair.
The strongly negative performance and unusual behavior of the Swiss franc (CHF) is a notable standout feature of this Forex universe. It is not merely a failure to trend, it is a strong propensity to revert to a mean. Although I do not include the data here, excepting the Euro crosses, the currency crosses (non-USD pairings) have not trended well in recent years. This should be a warning to Forex trend traders, as how can we know that the same pairs that have trended well in the past will continue to trend in the future, particularly when stock indices do seem to trend well, particularly on the long side? Here are the results of the same test applied to the S&P 500index “long only”:
The result is a total return of 53.97%, giving a slightly CAGR of 2.73%, but a significantly improved worst draw-down of 18.78%. This is superior to every currency pair except the GBP/USD, and per trade, it is better even than that, because it spent more time out of the market, and is therefore superior on a risk-adjusted basis. The profit factor of 2.87 is impressive.
Which Forex Pairs Will Trend the Most?
As mentioned previously, it might be dangerous to assume that the USD pairs will continue to trend most strongly in the future. However, as the USD is the primary global reserve currency, and is a counterparty in approximately 80% of all Forex trades by volume, it seems likely that its propensity to trend has basis in market structure, at least for as long as it continues as the dominant global currency. This argument is backed up by the fact that the Euro also accounts for a lot of market volume, and is the second currency most prone to trending behavior. Technical approaches such as selecting the most strongly trending Forex pairs have not produced notably better results (except in EUR/USD and USD/JPY), so there seems no alternative to applying some type of discretionary or market/fundamental logic.
Trending Behavior of Popular Commodities.
These days, most Forex brokers offer trading in a selection of commodities, most typically gold, silver, and crude oil, and possibly a few others. How do these assets look after the same analysis is conducted of their historical behaviors? Here I am only using data up to 2014, not 2017 as in the previous analyses.
The results for crude oil and gold are attractive and compare well to the best-performing Forex currency pairs which we looked at earlier. If these commodities are taken together, a CAGR of 8.48% would have been produced from a total return of 200%, with a worst draw-down of 138.52%.
Conclusion.
A wide universe of the seven major global currencies has not shown a statistical propensity to trend. However, the largest global currencies such as the U. S. dollar and euro have done so.
The persistence of Forex trends in the USD pairs has been barely positive over the past 9 years.
The major U. S. stock index the S&P 500 has shown a strong propensity to trend with minimal draw-down, making it arguably the most attractive trend trade of the past 20 years and perhaps longer. The long-only analysis produced an extremely large profit factor of 2.87, beaten only by GBP/USD within the entire universe analyzed within this article.
Major commodities have produced trends similar to those exhibited by the U. S. dollar Forex currency pairs, with similar overall profit factors.
I suggest the assets covered here can be most usefully broken down into two categories: the U. S. dollar against currencies and major commodities, and the U. S. stock market.
DailyForex Team.
The DailyForex team is comprised of analysts and researchers from around the world who watch the market throughout the day to provide you with unique perspectives and helpful analysis that can help improve your Forex trading.
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Risk Disclaimer: DailyForex will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information contained within this website including market news, analysis, trading signals and Forex broker reviews. The data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate, and analyses are the opinions of the author and do not represent the recommendations of DailyForex or its employees. Currency trading on margin involves high risk, and is not suitable for all investors. As a leveraged product losses are able to exceed initial deposits and capital is at risk. Before deciding to trade Forex or any other financial instrument you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. We work hard to offer you valuable information about all of the brokers that we review. In order to provide you with this free service we receive advertising fees from brokers, including some of those listed within our rankings and on this page. While we do our utmost to ensure that all our data is up-to-date, we encourage you to verify our information with the broker directly.

Forex Trend Indicators Free, Easy Setup, 9 Time Frames.
Here are the instructions for setting up the free forex trend indicators on any metatrader platform. The indicators are great forex trading tools and can be used to conduct multiple time frame analysis, follow the trends of the market and our trend based trading plans. The indicators are adaptable to most forex trading and charting systems. These indicators are quite simple but very effective for market analysis.
Instructions For Setup.
These instructions are for setting up the forex trend indicator on a Metatrader platform, however experienced traders can set up these simple exponential moving averages on almost any good quality forex charting platform.
1. Open up a Metatrader platform from any broker you wish. A Metatrader platform from any broker is fine.
2. Open up a chart on one pair. One way to do this is to right click on a pair in the quote window and symbol area and click on "chart window" in the drop down menu. The chart will be added to the platform.
3. Go to the top tool bar and there is an icon that looks like a magnifying glass with a + sign. You can click on the + sign twice to magnify the chart. Some personal choice is involved here but if you do this the charts will match the setup we use every day. There are images of this exact setup all over our website to check against so you know you have set the charts up correctly.
4. In the "Navigator" area under "Indicators" right click on "moving average", then click on "attach to a chart".
5. Fill in the fields like this:
Period: 5, ma method: exponential, apply to: close, style: green, line thickness second one from the top.
6. Repeat step number 5 and fill in the fields like this:
Period: 12, ma method: exponential, apply to: close, style; red and line thickness second one from the top.
7. On the "visualization" tab check "all time frames" then click OK.
You now are finished with the setup on one pair for all 9 time frames. Repeat the process for each successive currency pair. It takes about 30 minutes to set up all 28 pairs we follow. If you do this once all of the settings will be saved automatically for all of the pairs.
Forex Trend Indicator Videos.
We have a few short videos to show traders how to set up the indicators, if the written instructions above are not clear. The videos will show you the basic setup and some variations of the basic setup including setting up the indicators by individual currency, or using Metatrader profiles. Check out our forex videos page for these short videos.
Forex Trend Indicator Screenshots.
After you have installed the trend indicators on Metatrader you can check them against the image below to see if they match. We also have various chart examples all over our website and a chart library on our forex blog, to run further side by side checks. This is what they look like.
Setting Price Alerts.
The Metatrader platform has free desktop price alarms built into the platform, these are audible alerts that sound when price levels are breached. You can set them on all 28 pairs we follow. Our forex video library shows you how to set up the audible price alerts. The daily trading plans that we issue work extremely well with the price alarm system. Each trading plan we issue contains specific alarm points across several of the pairs we follow, to monitor for breakouts in the direction of the major trends of the market. Traders can check with your broker on how to get these price alerts delivered to your cell phone.
When the price alarms hit, just check the smaller time frames on the trend indicators along with The Forex Heatmap® for trade entry verification into the major trend or oscillation cycle. Following the trends of the forex market, along with a well prepared trading plan, when combined with good money management, will guide you through the trade entry process into the larger trends of the forex market. These forex trend indicators and audible price alerts are important components of our trading system.

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