AUD/USD.
The Aussie is a currency that has become a favored vehicle of traders in recent years. After a multi-decade commodity boom brought the Australian Dollar to all-time highs against the US Dollar, traders were often attracted by the interest rate differential in the pairing. This allowed traders to earn rollover for being long AUD/USD, while also benefitting from a massive bull run seen in the pair. Of recent, tides have appeared to change as economic difficulties in China coupled with bear markets in metals and many commodities, have created a more opaque picture of the future of Australia's financial prospects.
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AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 11-15 2017.
The Australian dollar continued grinding lower surrendering to the might of the US dollar. The jobs report is the highlight of the week. Will the Aussie continue falling? Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The RBA left the interest rate unchanged as expected and sounded a bit more optimistic. Retail sales rose by 0.5% and it also provided an early cushion to the Aussie. However, the GDP report missed by rising by only 0.6%, weighing on the A$. In the US, the jobs report was mixed, but the greenback enjoyed the advances made on tax cuts.
Updates: Dec 15, 17:56: AUDJPY and NZDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Good day traders! AUDJPY is now trading at the upper channel line and completing possibly sub-wave three of higher degree. Dec 14, 6:51: Dollar is down – 3 reasons, 5 updates: The US dollar is sliding across the board. The greenback is grinding lower in an orderly fashion, allowing for traders. Dec 13, 19:40: Fed raises rates: leaves 3 hikes in 2018, 2 dissenters – USD slides: The Fed raises rates as expected. They still see strong growth and are happy with the drop in unemployment. However. Dec 11, 18:11: Fed decision: a lot depends on the reaction to the inflation data: The Fed is expected to raise rates for the fifth time in the cycle and third time this year. The.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
HPI : Tuesday, 00:30. Prices of home surprised with significant gains of 1.9% back in the second quarter of the year. A more modest rise is on the cards now: 0.6%. NAB Business Confidence : Tuesday, 00:30. The National Australia Bank’s measure of business confidence was steady at 8 points in the past two months after a few volatile months beforehand. A similar number is likely now. Phillip Lowe speaks Tuesday, 22:!5. The governor of the RBA will speak at the Australian Payment Summit and the theme is digitization, or in Australia’s case: eAUD. This is of interest to those trading in bitcoins but could also move the Aussie of course. Westpac Consumer Sentiment : Tuesday, 23:30. The bank’s measure of consumer confidence fell by 1.7% last time, after two months of healthy gains. We could see a resumption of rises this time. Christopher Kent talks : Wednesday, 00:00. The RBA Assistant Governor will be speaking about business, and this is an opportunity to talk about the economy and future monetary policy. MI Inflation Expectations : Thursday, 00:00. The Melbourne Institute fills in the gap for the government that publishes inflation data only once every quarter. The inflation expectations gauge stood at 3.7% last time. It could tick down now. Jobs report : Thursday, 00:30. Australia had a disappointing jobs report for October, with gains of only 3.7K. A bigger rise of 19.2K is on the cards now, and that would put the growth rate at levels we got used to earlier in the year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4%. Chinese Industrial Production : Thursday, 2:00. The economic giant is Australia’s No. 1 trading partner. Growth in China’s industrial output implies growth in its imports of Australian commodities. An annual growth rate of 6.2% was seen in October and the same rate is on the cards for November.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis.
The Aussie failed to break above the 0.7840 level (mentioned last week). It then dropped to the lower ground, hardly holding onto the 0.75 level.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
The psychological round level of 0.80. Below, we find 0.7940, which capped the pair in August.
0.7860 served as support during September and is another line to watch. 0.7785 was a stepping stone on the way up.
Below, we find 0.7730, that was a high point in June 2017 and also beforehand, working as resistance in November. 0.7640 worked as resistance in November.
0.7595 was a swing high in early December and capped the pair. 07550 provided support in late November.
0.7530 is the cycle low, very close to the previous line and the last stop before the round number of 0.75.
Even lower, we find 0.7440 and then 0.7375.
I remain bearish on AUD/USD.
The jobs report could disappoint for the second time in a row and even if it doesn’t the trend remains clear: to the downside. The US dollar is expected to remain stable amid the expected rate hike by the FED.
AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 11-15 2017.
The Australian dollar continued grinding lower surrendering to the might of the US dollar. The jobs…
AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 4-8 2017.
The Australian dollar managed to stabilize amid OK data. A very busy week awaits the Aussie,…
AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 27 – Dec. 1 2017.
The Australian dollar struggled to recover and the RBA did not help too much. The main…
AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 20-24 2017.
The Australian dollar dipped its feet at lower ground amid many economic releases and a “risk-off”…
AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 13-17 2017.
The Australian dollar stuck to its low range as the RBA did not provide any new…
AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 6-10 2017.
The Australian dollar struggled to recover amid mixed data. The highlight of the upcoming week is…
AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 30 – Nov. 3 2017.
The Australian dollar was under pressure after inflation figures disappointed dropping to the lowest levels in…
AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 23-27 2017.
The Australian dollar had a turbulent amid key figures and it struggled to rise. Will it…
AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 16-20 2017.
The Australian dollar had a positive week, reversing previous losses. The upcoming week features the jobs…
AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 9-13 2017.
The Australian dollar struggled amid various pressure, mostly from the RBA. The upcoming features more talk…
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AUD/USD forecast – Australian dollar versus US dollar.
AUD/USD (Australian dollar/US dollar) – this currency pair is currently one of the most popular on the market. Some time ago its trading volumes reached 20% of the whole turnover.
The movements of this currency pair might be caused by the commodity prices, weather conditions of the continent, difference in the interest rates of those countries. In the section «AUD/USD Forecast» we offer forecasts for today, tomorrow alongside with long-term forecasts. Forecasts from the leading analysts of Forex companies and original analytical texts which will help you to realise the current condition of the Aussie. However, these are not recommendations, but the opportunity we give to see the objective picture of the market. The final word is always said by the trader.
USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast.
The US dollar rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the vital 112 level. By doing so, it looks as if we are ready to continue rallying, and if there is a tax deal coming out of the U. S. Congress, it’s likely that we will go looking towards the 114.50 level above, and perhaps even the 115 handle. If we can clear the 115 level, the market should go much higher, perhaps offering a buy-and-hold scenario. With this being the case, I like the idea of buying pullbacks, especially considering that interest rates look likely to go higher in the United States while the think Japan remains alter easy. If we were to break below the 111 level, the market should then drop to the 110 level, and then down to the 108 handle.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the day as well, but turned around to form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a very negative looking candle, at the bottom of a move lower. If we can break down below the 0.75 level, the market could then go down to the 0.7350 level after that, specially considering that the gold market has been struggling. On the other hand, the gold market breaks above the $1300 level, it’s likely that the Australian dollar will rally as well. The 0.7750 level above is resistance, so I think even if we do rally from here, that’s as far as any rally would go. Passage of a tax bill would be a bullish turn of events for the US dollar, and should be reflected here in this pair as well. The market will remain volatile, but I think decidedly negative in general going forward.
Currency Pairs AUD/USD USD/JPY.
Christopher Lewis.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.
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